Friday, 7 October 2011

So who will be the big winner in Ontario tomorrow? Remember, you heard it here first!

Brian Weller

BY Brian Weller | BLOGGER

Oak Ridges-Markham
Each of the Provincial elections have created their own drama as Manitoba Premier Greg Selinger's NDP took 37 of the legislature's 57 seats compared with 19 for the Progressive Conservatives who took a big bite out of their popular vote butt wasn't enough for Tory Leader Hugh McFadyen, who told supporters he takes personal responsibility for failing to dent the NDP's seat count and one for the Liberals as party leader Jon Gerrard retained his Winnipeg riding of River Heights, but his party fell to 7.5 per cent voter support from 12 per cent in 2007. The popular vote was almost a dead heat. The NDP was running at close to 46 per cent, less than two percentage points ahead of the Tories. In 2007, the New Democrats beat the Tories by 10 points.

Despite a hard-fought campaign by the Olive Crane-led Progressive Conservatives, the final outcome in PEI was hardly in doubt with a majority Liberal government under Robert Ghiz garnering 22 of the province’s 27 ridings. Just one day before the election writ was dropped, a public opinion survey placed the Liberals almost 30 points ahead of the Opposition PCs. Even on tiny P.E.I., that was an insurmountable lead for the Liberals, and too high an electoral mountain for the other political parties to climb.

So who will be the big winner in Ontario? First I consulted the official prognosticators....the Pollsters. Unfortunately, their purported scientific methods looked more like an art form so I was forced to rely upon the old tried and tested pre-election predictor....I put the leaders images on my dart board, closed my eyes and gave it my best shot! So, after measuring the distance of each image from my dart, down to the little lines on my slide rule, my dart predicts - PC-54, Lib-40, NDP-12 and Green - 1.

Remember, you heard it here first!

No comments:

Post a Comment